The 2024 MLB All-Star Game and draft have concluded, and with the trade deadline looming just under two weeks away, excitement is building. Afterward, we’ll dive into the heat of summer, focusing on various postseason and awards races. While we await the end of the All-Star break, let’s delve into 10 bold predictions for the latter half of the 2024 MLB season. Join me, won’t you?
1. The Cardinals Will Top the NL Central for at Least a Day
Did you know that since May 11, the Cardinals boast the best record in the National League? It’s true. They’ve gone 35-22 (.614) since then, outperforming even the Phillies (34-22, .607). Only the Astros (36-21, .632) and Guardians (34-21, .618) have better records than St. Louis since that date.
This two-month hot streak has placed the Cardinals back in postseason contention and within striking distance of the NL Central-leading Brewers. Here are the current NL Central standings:
- Brewers: 55-42
- Cardinals: 50-46 (4.5 GB)
- Pirates: 48-48 (6.5 GB)
- Reds: 47-50 (8 GB)
- Cubs: 47-51 (8.5 GB)
The Brewers have struggled recently (19-19 in their last 38 games), and the Cardinals are closer to Milwaukee than they have been in weeks. With two three-game series left (Aug. 20-22 in St. Louis and Sept. 2-4 in Milwaukee), the division race is wide open, despite the Brewers leading the season series 6-1.
Our first bold prediction is that the Cardinals will continue their hot streak and at some point between now and the end of the season, they will surpass the Brewers and spend at least one day in first place in the NL Central. While I’m not necessarily predicting they’ll win the division (though it’s possible), I do believe they will catch and pass the Brewers for at least one day.
2. The Blue Jays Will Trade a Franchise Player
It feels like it’s time for a significant change. The first half of the season went as poorly as possible for the Blue Jays, who are currently 44-52 and 9.5 games out of a wild-card spot with six teams ahead of them. FanGraphs gives them a 1.8% chance of making the postseason, while SportsLine is even more pessimistic at 1.0%. Things are grim in Toronto.
The question is not whether the Blue Jays will be sellers at the deadline; of course, they will. Rentals like Yusei Kikuchi and Danny Jansen are almost certain to be traded, given the demand for pitching and the scarcity of catchers. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them entertain offers for Chris Bassitt and Chad Green, despite them being under contract through 2025. What about Kevin Gausman? Taking a call never hurts, right?
The Blue Jays are going to sell, but to what extent? Would they actually trade a cornerstone player like Bo Bichette or Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? This bold prediction says yes. The Blue Jays will shock Toronto and the trade market by dealing one of their foundational pieces.
Let’s say Guerrero stays and Bichette goes. Specifically, Bichette will be traded to the Giants for former top prospect Marco Luciano and lefty Carson Whisenhunt, among others. San Francisco gets the shortstop they need and a big name, while the Blue Jays shake things up and bolster their young talent base. Bichette’s days in Toronto are numbered, we boldly predict.
3. Elly De La Cruz Will Reach 80 Stolen Bases
Earlier this year, Reds sensation Elly De La Cruz was on pace to steal 100 bases, a feat not accomplished since Vince Coleman swiped 109 bags in 1987. While his pace has slowed, he still entered the All-Star break with an MLB-leading 46 steals, 16 more than any other player.
The Reds have played 97 games, putting De La Cruz on track to steal 78 bases this season, which would be the highest total since José Reyes stole 78 bases in 2007. Ronald Acuña Jr. stole 73 bases last year, but like most speedsters, his pace slowed as the season progressed, finishing with only 10 steals in his final 25 games, a 65-steal pace.
Stealing bases is a grind. Players get banged up sliding into bags and their legs get heavy as the wear and tear of the 162-game season sets in. It’s no easy task, which is why 70-steal seasons are rare.
No matter. Elly is electrifying and one of the most captivating players in the sport. This bold prediction says De La Cruz will pick up the pace in the second half and become the first player since Coleman (81) and Rickey Henderson (93) in 1988 to steal 80 bases in a season. Go Elly go.
4. The Mets Will Acquire Garrett Crochet
All the usual suspects have been mentioned as potential landing spots for White Sox ace Garrett Crochet: the Astros, Dodgers, Orioles, Yankees, etc. It’s highly likely Crochet will be traded, but rather than one of those teams, we’re boldly predicting he will land with the Mets, who are in wild-card position and could use a high-end starter under control beyond 2024.
The issue with Crochet is his workload. He has thrown 107 1/3 innings, far exceeding his previous career high of 65 innings as a college sophomore in 2019. It’s hard to imagine a team responsibly asking Crochet to continue starting through the end of the season. At some point, his workload will be scaled back, likely moving him to the bullpen, where he has plenty of experience and where the Mets need help.
We’re predicting the Mets will add Crochet, use him as a reliever for the rest of 2024, and then move him back into the rotation in 2025 (and 2026). They’ll outbid the Astros, Dodgers, and others with a package that includes former top prospect Brett Baty, righty Brandon Sproat, catcher Kevin Parada, and additional pieces. Crochet to the Mets at the deadline—it has been foretold.
5. The Yankees Will Make at Least Four Trades at the Deadline
At 58-40, the Yankees have the fourth-best record in baseball and the second-best run differential (plus-106). They’re one game out in the AL East and 5.5 games up on a wild-card spot. By any objective measure, the Yankees have been one of the best teams in baseball in 2024. So why does it feel like they’re in crisis mode? Because they’re 8-18 in their past 26 games, the worst record in baseball during that time, and they suffered a gut-wrenching loss on Sunday.
Despite their record and run differential, and despite the greatness of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, the Yankees have a lot of needs at the trade deadline. At a minimum, they need a third baseman and two relievers. You could also feasibly add a first baseman, second baseman, starting pitcher, and righty-hitting platoon partner for Alex Verdugo to the list. It’s a lot.
This bold prediction says the Yankees will be aggressive in their one guaranteed year with Soto and address their needs at the July 30 trade deadline by making no fewer than four trades. I’m not talking about minor trades for Triple-A depth either. I mean at least four trades for MLB players who will step directly onto the big-league roster and make a difference down the stretch.
Four trades at the deadline is heavy lifting, but it’s not unprecedented. Just two years ago, the Yankees swung four trades at the deadline, acquiring Andrew Benintendi, Harrison Bader, Scott Effross, Frankie Montas, and Lou Trivino. The year before that, they made four deadline trades that brought Joey Gallo, Andrew Heaney, Clay Holmes, Joely Rodríguez, and Anthony Rizzo to the Bronx. Four trades for MLB help at the deadline is a lot, but it’s been done by Brian Cashman before.
This deadline, we’re predicting the Yankees will make at least four trades for MLB help, specifically adding two relievers, a third baseman, a starting pitcher, and a righty-hitting outfielder. The Yankees need help, and the AL East title is there for the taking. So is the AL, which feels wide open this season.
6. The Padres Will Win the NL West
Just before the All-Star break, I went all-in on the Padres and predicted they would make the postseason, pointing out they’re too talented to struggle much longer. While they are in wild-card position, I’m going to up the ante and predict they’ll win the NL West for the first time since 2006.
The Dodgers currently lead the division with a 58-41 record, four games up on San Diego. FanGraphs gives Los Angeles a 60.2% chance of winning the division and the Padres a 33.4% chance. Despite the numbers, I’m going with San Diego.
The Dodgers will likely finish with the better run differential and maybe even the better record, but this bold prediction is that the Padres will come out on top in the head-to-head matchups. They’ve already beaten the Dodgers 5-2 in the season series, and they’ll face off 12 more times. Win those head-to-head games, and the Padres can make up ground quickly.
Beyond the head-to-head matchups, the Padres will benefit from the return of key players. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mike Clevinger should be back soon, and while it’s unclear how much they’ll contribute, their returns will boost the team. Additionally, the Padres have the resources and motivation to make impactful trades at the deadline. They’ll add a starting pitcher and at least one reliever, potentially shaking up the division.
Our bold prediction: the Padres will surge in the second half, win the season series against the Dodgers, and capture the NL West title for the first time in nearly two decades.
7. Shohei Ohtani Will Hit 50 Home Runs
Entering the All-Star break, Ohtani led the league with 35 home runs, already setting a career high. Given his remarkable talent and the way he’s been playing, this bold prediction says he’ll reach 50 home runs by the end of the season.
Ohtani’s power and ability to hit home runs are undeniable. He’s on pace to surpass his previous best and is showing no signs of slowing down. As he continues to perform at an elite level, we predict he’ll reach the 50-home-run milestone, solidifying his place as one of the greatest players in the game today.
8. The Red Sox Will Trade for a Big-Name Pitcher
The Red Sox have had their share of struggles this season, but they remain in the playoff hunt. To bolster their chances, we predict they’ll make a splash at the trade deadline by acquiring a big-name pitcher.
Boston’s pitching staff has been inconsistent, and adding a top-tier arm could make a significant difference. Whether it’s a frontline starter or a dominant reliever, the Red Sox will pull the trigger on a major trade to enhance their roster and push for a postseason berth.
9. The Mariners Will Make a Late Playoff Push
The Mariners have been an under-the-radar team this season, but they have the potential to make a late playoff push. With a mix of young talent and veteran leadership, Seattle will surprise many by climbing the standings and challenging for a wild-card spot.
Our bold prediction is that the Mariners will play their best baseball in the second half, fueled by standout performances from key players and strategic moves at the trade deadline. Keep an eye on Seattle as they make a strong push for the postseason.
10. The Braves Will Win the World Series
Last but not least, our final bold prediction is that the Braves will win the World Series. Atlanta has been a powerhouse team all season, and they have the talent and depth to go all the way.
With a potent lineup, strong pitching staff, and experienced leadership, the Braves are poised for a deep playoff run. This bold prediction sees Atlanta capturing the World Series title and celebrating as champions at the end of the season.
There you have it, 10 bold predictions for the second half of the 2024 MLB season. As we gear up for an exciting finish, these predictions highlight the potential for thrilling storylines and unforgettable moments. Stay tuned and enjoy the ride!